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Penalties for
  1. Lack of fit to data (LIKELIHOOD)
  2. Period Shape (PRIOR: small residuals from projection on 3 SVD comp)
  3. Freeze-Slope Time Series (PRIOR: small residuals from lin. regression on previous 5 obs at each age)
  4. Freeze-Rate Time Series (PRIOR: small changes across adjacent cohorts at each age)
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